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(Motorsport-Total.com) – “Lap times are not everything in the test drives.” This sentence is heard frequently in winter and is repeated so often that it is more or less considered a fact. But is that really the case? The Mercedes crew investigated this question and has published an exciting explanatory press release , which we will give below 1: 1.

Valtteri Bottas

© LAT

The Mercedes crew clearly set the tone in the first week in Barcelona Zoom Download

The analysis of the test times is anything but meaningless considered. Each crew studies the data to get a first picture of the balance of power. Methods are used that have been developed over many seasons. With these it is possible with surprising precision to find out who was behind the best times during the winter test drives.

It is of course true that the strategists are faced with a whole range of unknowns. For example, the amount of petrol, the engine modes, the tire performance and how hard the driver went to the restrict.

All this affects lap times and all of these factors are either unknown or at least partially unknown , However, the test times are far from meaningless. If you look at them long enough, you will gradually discover their secrets.

The starting point: Which parameters are known?

We start with the things we know. We know the lap time. We know the number of laps completed. We pretty much know the amount of gasoline consumed per lap. We know from our simulations how much faster a car gets on each lap when it consumes petrol.

We also know with sufficient accuracy how much slower a tire gets with every lap , We also have estimates for the lap time differences between the different tire compounds, which become more and more precise as the assessment progresses. With this data we can now start the calculation.

It may seem strange, but the habits of the groups always remain relatively the same. They tend to do similar things every year.

Many groups run three amounts of gasoline: a small amount for efficiency runs, a medium amount for most of their work, and full tanks for theirs Racing simulations.

These three quantities are different for each crew, but strangely they do not vary so much from year to year. In our initial assumption, we therefore assume that each crew does the same as in the previous year.

Assumptions form the basis for the calculation model

Now we have a number of test times for the field and a number of (estimated) first assumptions with which of these three petrol quantities each car has driven. From this we can now calculate a rough overall picture for the balance of forces.

These first estimates are of course very imprecise. The balance of power is largely based on how good the first estimates were. For example, if you assume that a crew 50 had kilograms in the tank, but actually 100 kilograms, then you have clearly underestimated its pace.

Over the course of the test days, these estimates are refined more and more with each bustle. A straightforward method is used to adjust the lower limit of the amount of fuel in the car: We count the laps.

If a car drives ten laps and we know that for example 1 lap , 7 kilograms used, so there must have been at least 17 kilograms in the car on this bustle. The groups are reluctant to drive to the last drop in normal assessments, so it is likely that there were at least 27 kilograms in the tank.

If our original assumption battle that this crew normally has 50 kilograms in the car during test drives, we fit ours first assumption and say that probably a value between 27 kilograms and 50 kilogram was in the tank. As soon as a crew has completed many runs, this estimate is surprisingly accurate.

Sometimes quickly, sometimes slowly: Modified into as soon as you can get out of it can read

If we recognize that a car's speed fluctuates significantly, then we provisionally assume that it is on one of the other quantities of petrol was converted. If it suddenly gets significantly faster, we assume that it has been switched to the efficiency level that comes closer to a qualifying attempt.

However, we get the right insights, when a crew starts a race distance. If a crew completes a complete race distance with tire changes during pit stop exercises, we assume that the tanks are almost full. This limits the margin of error dramatically in our estimates and we can compare the race times more or less directly with one another Acceleration that can be seen on the GPS machine. This way you can recognize changes in the PU performance.

If the groups change the energy modes, we can estimate which energy levels are available for each PU type and when they are were used. This allows us to refine the pace assessment for each crew and adjust them for the use of the engine modes on each bustle.

At the end of the first day, this gives a vague picture. By the end of the first assessment, however, this picture is becoming clearer.

The conclusion: Swipe on throttled Ferrari engine!

Modified into as soon as can you say about the timesheet after the first three days of testing? It gets tricky at this point because all of these estimates are at the lower limit.

One can say with some confidence that his competitors are “at least as fast as X”, but you know not sure how much faster they could have been. Nobody wants to admit that he is faster than another crew, because he can never be sure about it, became still hidden or became next.

For example: Becomes purple Bull bring a significant upgrade package for the second take a look at? Or: Why did Ferrari take its PU constantly with this take a look at at a lower level than with its partner teams?

Modified into as soon as we can say, however, is that we are in Melbourne expect a close fight for the top. We can also see that the midfield has moved closer to the top and there has been a significant change in the midfield compared to the previous year.

The lap times are not insignificant. They are a gold mine, if you are ready to work carefully and carefully until you get a clear picture …


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